Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
