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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the path that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in truth, few even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd